CIER raises GDP forecast to 5.84% as exports surge
By ECCT staff reporters
The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) has raised its forecast for Taiwan's economic growth for 2021 to 5.84%, bringing it more or less in line with the forecast of the Directorate General of Budget Accounting and Statistics, which last raised its forecast to 5.88% on 13 August.
CIER attributed the increase (from its previous forecast of 5.16% made in July) to the outstanding performance of Taiwan’s manufacturing foreign trade sector, driven by robust export growth. The new forecast also takes into account the expected boost to private consumption from the government’s stimulus vouchers, which are valued at NT$5,000 and can be claimed by all Taiwanese and permanent foreign residents.
The report comes as the outlook for Taiwan’s exports remains bright. On top of over 30% increases in exports so far this year, the Ministry of Economic Affairs reported yesterday that the value of export orders placed by foreign companies with Taiwanese businesses in September reached US$62.9 billion, a record high and the first time the US$60 billion mark has been exceeded this year. The September figure means Taiwan had seen growth in export orders for 19 consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase in export orders of 25.7%, according to the MOEA.
Export orders for electronics components and information and communications products (the two largest categories of exports) rose by 35.1% and 22.7%, respectively (measured in US dollar terms) to US$19.492 billion and US$19.389 billion.
By region, the United States, Mainland China/Hong Kong, Europe and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) were the top four buyers.
Looking ahead, the MOEA said it expects the value of export orders to rise even higher in October owing to the ongoing global economic recovery, given the rising Covid-19 vaccination coverage rates, and on account of the traditional high sales season in the fourth quarter.