Politics & Law

Taiwan Politics Review – Legislative Yuan again challenges the EY

21 January, 2025

Significant developments over the past month: Ko Wen-je indicted, Legislative Yuan fighting amid passage of three controversial laws, bullying incidents in government agencies, and more…

By Ross Darrell Feingold


 

Core Pacific City / Ko Wen-je investigation
On 26 December 2024, the Taipei District Prosecutors concluded their investigation into the Core Pacific City land redevelopment case (see Taiwan Politics Review, 11 December 2024) by issuing indictments, including the  indictment of Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), the former presidential candidate and Taipei City mayor. Prosecutors are seeking a sentence of 28.5 years for Ko, including 15 years for bribery, five years and six years for separate cases of embezzlement, and two-and-a-half years for breach of public trust.

 

Ten other suspects were also indicted, including former Taipei Deputy Mayor Pong Cheng-sheng (彭振聲), Taipei City Councilor Angela Ying Hsiao-wei (應曉薇) (Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang (KMT) – Zhong Zheng – Wanhua Constituency), Lee Wen-tsung (李文宗), finance chief of Ko's 2024 election campaign; and Sheen Ching-jing (沈慶京), founder and chairman of the real estate conglomerate Core Pacific Group. Prosecutors have accused Ying of receiving NT$47 million from Shen in return for Ying pressuring relevant decisionmakers in the Taipei City government to approve a floor area ratio increase for the redevelopment of the Core Pacific City shopping mall into an office complex. Prosecutors issued a summary of the charges against the defendants (available in Mandarin).

 

Following the indictment, the TPP held a press conference (available in English via simultaneous translation and in Mandarin).

 

The Central News Agency published an English language timeline of the investigation.

 

On 27 December 2024 after the indictment was issued, the District Court allowed Ko to post NT$30,000,000 in bail though prohibited Ko from leaving Taiwan. Prosecutors subsequently appealed, and on Sunday, 29 December 2024, the High Court (the intermediate appellate court in Taiwan’s three-tiered court system) agreed to prosecutor’s request for a re-hearing on the bail given to several suspects, including Ko, and returned the matter to the District Court for further review. The District Court subsequently increased Ko’s bail amount to NT$70,000,000 and required Ko to wear an electronic ankle bracelet. Prosecutors again appealed to the High Court, which again ordered the District Court to reconsider whether to give Ko bail. Finally, on 2 January 2025, the District Court revoked Ko’s bail. During Ko’s brief time not in jail, on 1 January 2025 he resigned as TPP chairman, with Legislator Huang Kuo-chang (At-Large) succeeding Ko as interim chairman (the TPP subsequently announced that an election for party chairman will be held on 15 February 2025).

 

On 10 January 2025, Ko filed an appeal against the revocation of bail, which the High Court rejected on 11 January 2025.

 

On 15 January 2025, Taipei City officials said a letter was received from Core Pacific Development Corp. stating its willingness to place a pause on the controversial 20% increase in authorized floor space it obtained for the project.

 

Analysis: It appears that the District Court and High Court judges have vastly different views about the need to hold a suspect in custody after an indictment is issued. In many judicial systems, at this point bail would be offered to a suspected white collar criminal even if significant conditions are attached such as a large cash amount, submitting passports to the court, requiring that the suspect wears an electronic ankle bracelet, and prohibiting the suspect from having any contact with other suspects or with witnesses (as the District Court ordered in Ko’s case). The High Court’s view appears to be that Ko might still be able to use his influence with other suspects or witnesses to affect future testimony.

 

Periodically on their respective X accounts, the TPP and Ko Wen-je (while he was out of jail) have posted in English about the case. TPP acting chairman Huang accused the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) (whose chairman is President William Lai Ching-te (賴清德) of “green authoritarianism” and said that the party is undermining Taiwan’s judicial freedom by using the court as a political tool. On 3 January 2025 the TPP posted in English “We urge President Lai to restore judicial justice and democracy in Taiwan!”, as part of promoting a rally the TPP held on 11 January 2025. The TPP claimed in a post on X that 150,000 attended the rally, though a speaker at the rally claimed a total of 200,000 when online viewers are included. DPP Legislative Yuan Caucus convener Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘) (At-Large) called the rally “ridiculous”.

 

As for the future of the TPP without Ko as chairman, this all depends on the ultimate result of the judicial process. Should Ko be exonerated, it is likely that he would return as TPP chairman. Even if Ko is exonerated but does not return as chairman, he is still likely to run again as the TPP candidate for president in the 2028 election. However, if Ko is convicted (or prosecutors successfully appeal a not guilty verdict), the future of the TPP will be very much in doubt without Ko or a party chairman who similarly has Ko’s ability to generate support for a “third force” in Taiwan politics.

 

Politicians in trouble with the law
On 19 December 2024, former Vice Premier Cheng Wen-tsan (鄭文燦) (DPP) who served as vice premier from 31 January 2023, to 20 May 2024, during Tsai Ing-wen's (蔡英文) second term as president and was earlier the first mayor of the newly established Taoyuan City special municipality from 2014 to 2022, attended a hearing at the start of his trial on corruption charges (see Taiwan Politics Review, 16 July 2024). Cheng denied the charges of receiving cash from the developer of an industrial zone. According to the prosecutors' indictment, the former head of an industrial zone planning committee in Linkou District, Liao Chun-sung (廖俊松), visited Cheng's official residence and deposited a black bag containing NT$5 million (US$152,945) in cash on 14 September 2017. Cheng claimed he was not in the room when Liao deposited the bag and only found it the next day, that he then repeatedly asked Liao to take the bag back, but Liao did not come to retrieve it. Cheng further alleged that he returned the bag to Liao’s son. Cheng was formally indicted and released on bail of NT$28 million in August, at the time (pending the bail amount for Ko Wen-je, see above) media reported it was “the highest bail given to a political figure in recent years”.

 

On 31 December 2024, incumbent Yilan County Magistrate Lin Zi-miao (林姿妙) (KMT) was sentenced to 12.5 years in prison on corruption charges in a case stemming from a property transaction. Lin was convicted of seeking illegal gains through her supervisory role as a public official, money laundering, and, having unaccounted-for assets as a public official. The court also ordered the seizure of NT$32.5 million from Lin which was inconsistent with her income and could not be accounted for. The KMT vowed to "fully support" Lin as she appealed the verdict to "defend her innocence”.

 

On 2 January 2025, the corruption conviction for now suspended Hsinchu City Mayor Ann Kao (高虹安) was referred to the Constitutional Court to adjudicate whether the law that was the basis of her conviction constitutionally applies to legislators. Kao was convicted on 26 July 2024 (see Taiwan Politics Review, 20 August 2024 and sentenced on 21 August 2024 (see Taiwan Politics Review, 18 September 2024) for the misuse of staff salary during her tenure as a legislator between 2020 and 2022 before she elected mayor in the 2022 local election.

 

Analysis: The overlapping timing of developments Cheng Wen-tsan’s case and Ko Wen-je’s case resulted in comparisons being made between the two. In Cheng’s case, the passing of cash as an attempted bribe is already established notwithstanding that Cheng claims in court he returned the money. In Ko’s case, prosecutors have yet to (at least publicly) establish that cash was passed to Ko. Another point of comparison is that Cheng received bail but (after several rounds of back and forth between the District Court and High Court), Ko was denied bail.

 

Chaotic week at the Legislative Yuan ends with three controversial laws passed
Mid to late December at the Legislative Yuan was notable for multiple days of physical altercations and the passage of controversial amendments to the Public Officials Election and Recall Act (sometimes translated as the Civil Servants Election and Recall Act (公職人員選舉罷免法)) (unamended law is available in English and Mandarin), the Constitutional Court Procedure Act (憲法訴訟法) (unamended law is available in English and Mandarin), and the Act Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures (財政收支劃分法) (unamended law is available in English and Mandarin).

 

On 16 December 2024, draft amendments to the Public Officials Election and Recall Act passed the preliminary review stage at the Internal Administration Committee after committee convener Legislator Hsu Hsin-ying (徐欣瑩) (KMT - Hsinchu County 1st Constituency) called the meeting to order at 09:00, conducted a quick vote with DPP legislators outside the room, and announced the conclusion of the meeting at 09:03. Before the meeting started, KMT legislators had gathered outside the chamber, blocking one side of the hallway with chairs and sealing the door with tape. They used their bodies to block the other side. The amendments include a provision that "a recall vote must have more votes than the official received when elected”; under the original law, a recall proposal is approved if the number of votes supporting the recall exceeds the number of votes opposing it. In addition, the number of supporting votes must be at least one-quarter of the total number of voters in the electoral district. In other words, the revisions would raise the bar for a successful recall to occur. The DPP issued a press release titled “Condemning KMT's Destruction of Democracy and Implementation of Parliamentary Martial Law” (available in English and Mandarin). A KMT press release accused the DPP of causing mischief, disrupting the legislature, and engaging in shameful and incompetent behaviour (available in Mandarin).

 

On 20 December 2024 amid physical altercations (including a storming of the Legislative Yuan chamber by DPP legislators the previous night), the revised three laws passed the Legislative Yuan. Protestors outside the Legislative Yuan who oppose the revisions clashed with police.

 

The revisions to the Public Officials Election and Recall Act requires individuals initiating a recall petition and those who sign up to such an initiative to provide photocopies of their identification cards (the requirement that the number of votes in favour of ousting an elected official would have to exceed the votes the official got when originally elected for the recall to pass, were not addressed because of a month waiting period before it can be put to a vote on the floor of the Legislative Yuan).

 

The revisions to the Constitutional Court Procedure Act mandates a minimum of 10 justices to hear a case and stipulates that an unconstitutional ruling by the court be backed by at least nine justices; the law prior to this revision does specify a minimum number of justices required to hear a case. Instead, it mandates the presence of at least two-thirds of all sitting justices, with a ruling determined by a simple majority vote. The Constitutional Court normally has 15 justices but currently only has eight because the eight-year terms of seven of the justices ended on 31 October 2024 and the Legislative Yuan rejected President Lai’s nominees (see below).

 

The revisions to the Act Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures changes how funds collected by the central government are allocated between the central government and local governments. Under the law prior to the revisions, the central government is allocated 75 percent of the country's total tax or other revenue, while local governments are given 25 percent. The revisions allow local governments to take 60% with only 40% for the central government (which was the allocation prior to the most recent change to the allocation which occurred in 1999). On 7 January 2025 an aide to a KMT legislator published a defense of the revised act (available in English).

 

On 21 December 2024, Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) said that the cabinet would take action to counter the three revisions which he described as "difficult to implement". The cabinet subsequently warned that the revenue allocation changes would entail a “complete overhaul” of the 2025 central government budget, which the Legislative Yuan has yet to approve.

 

Also on 21 December 2024, the DPP issued a press release titled “KMT-TPP's "Political Chaos Trio of Laws" destroy constitution and cause political chaos” (available in English and Mandarin).

 

On 2 January 2025, Executive Yuan said it will submit an official request to the Legislative Yuan for a new vote on the revisions to the Constitutional Court Procedure Act. The reconsideration vote was held on 10 January 2025 with all KMT and TPP legislators voting once again to approve the revisions.

 

At a press conference on 4 January 2025, DPP legislative caucus convenor Ker called for the mass removal (by recall) of the KMT’s 39 legislators who represent constituencies, as well as the two independent legislators who typically vote with the KMT (the KMT also has 13 legislators-at-large; legislators-at-large are not subject to the recall provisions in the Public Officials Election and Recall Act). The KMT responded on Facebook by congratulating Ker for being the “10,000 year caucus convenor” (Ker has held the position since 2000) and KMT legislators vowed retaliatory recall attempts against DPP legislators should Ker proceed with his proposal

 

Analysis: In addition to reducing the percentage of government revenue allocated to the central government, KMT and TPP legislators are also seeking to reduce the central government budget by NT$93.98 billion (many of the proposed reductions are in the public messaging budgets of various agencies, i.e., purchasing advertisements to announce what a good job the agencies are doing).

 

The Executive Yuan would probably prefer to seek a Constitutional Court review of the three laws, but the outlook for adjudication at the Constitutional Court is unclear given the unfilled openings on the court (see below). The physical altercations are regrettable but all too common when contentious bills are discussed or voted on.

 

Xi Jinping, Lai Ching-te dueling new year’s speeches
On 31 December 2024, China’s President Xi Jinping (習近平) delivered his usual new year’s address (available in English and Mandarin). With regard to Taiwan, Xi said “We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one and the same family. No one can ever sever the bond of kinship between us, and no one can ever stop China's reunification, a trend of the times.” An English language program on China’s CGTN television network analyzed Xi’s speech.

 

On 1 January 2025, President Lai delivered his new year’s address (available in English and Mandarin). With regard to China, Lai noted the “convergence of authoritarian regimes including China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran”, “Taiwan has significantly increased its investments in the US, Japan, Europe, and the New Southbound countries, and such investment has already surpassed investment in China” and that “No matter the threat or challenge Taiwan may face, democracy is Taiwan’s only path forward. We will not turn back.” Lai also noted that Taiwan must combat “cognitive warfare, so that the populace rejects threats and enticements and jointly guards against malicious infiltration by external forces.”

 

Subsequently on new year’s day, Lai held a press conference. Lai called China the "real barrier" to cross-strait exchanges and urged China to hold talks with Taipei to ease tourism restrictions. Lai said "If China is genuinely sincere, I suggest that the Taiwan Strait Tourism Association and the Association for Tourism Exchange across the Taiwan Straits begin negotiations”. Separately, Lai proposed to meet Legislative Yuan Speaker Daniel Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) over coffee in order to overcome partisan differences.

 

Analysis: Taiwan’s president typically makes a major speech on new year’s day and on national day (10 October, also known as “Double Ten”). Often these speeches refer to China-Taiwan relations. While journalists or scholars might carefully review the speech text (or the president’s comments at the press conference) to discover new proposals for China-Taiwan relations, the reality is that no single speech (or comment at a press conference) leads to significant changes in China-Taiwan relations.

 

Legislative Yuan rejects seven Judicial Yuan nominees
On 24 December 2024, the Legislative Yuan rejected all seven nominees to the Judicial Yuan (i.e., the Constitutional Court) proposed by President Lai (biographies of the nominees and current justices is available in Mandarin). None of the seven nominees, including law professor Chang Wen-chen (張文貞) and former lawmaker Yao Li-ming (姚立明) (who served as the director of Lai's presidential campaign headquarters in the 2024 presidential election), who were proposed to be the president and vice president of the Judicial Yuan, received the necessary 57 votes in the 113-seat Legislature Yuan to be approved.

 

All 52 KMT lawmakers (plus the two independents who usually vote with the KMT) voted against all seven of the nominees. The KMT legislators based their decision on a refusal to approve nominees who it deemed partisan, and also because it objects to the recent Constitutional Court death penalty ruling that raised the bar for issuing death sentences (see Taiwan Politics Review, 30 October 2024).

 

The TPP joined with the KMT to vote down six of the seven nominees but voted in favour of Liu Ching-yi (劉靜怡), a National Taiwan University professor.

 

DPP legislators voted in favour of six out of the seven nominees. In an unusual rejection of a nomination proposed by President Lai, DPP legislators voted against Liu after media publicised her past negative comments about the DPP. Liu had claimed in the past that both former President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and former Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) are corrupt.

 

Analysis: With the recent revisions to the Constitutional Court Procedure Act, a minimum of 10 justices is necessary to hear a case. Thus, the practical effect of the Legislative Yuan rejection of the nominees is that the Constitutional Court cannot hear or decide on cases. Although the description “constitutional crisis” should not be used lightly, a frozen Constitutional Court might in fact be one.

 

Poll shows President Lai’s rating recovers
A Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) poll published on 17 December 2024 revealed that 65.2% of respondents approved of President Lai’s recent overseas trip in the furtherance of foreign relations, and only 17.9% did not approve. In good news for Lai, 35.3% of respondents disapproved of Lai, and 51.3% approved, up significantly from the prior month when 43% of respondents disapproved of Lai, and 42.8% approved.

 

In further good news for the Lai Administration, Premier Choi’s cabinet was rated satisfactory by 47.3%, and unsatisfactory by only 34.8%.

 

In bad news for the Lai Administration, 40.5% of respondents said replacement Minister of Labor Hung Sun-han (洪申翰) (see Taiwan Politics Review, 19 December 2024) is not an appropriate choice for the job, and only 33.4% said he is appropriate. Also bad for the DPP, 63.5% of respondents said it was a mistake for the DPP legislative caucus to post on its Threads account a statement affirming South Korea President Yoon Suk-yeol’s declaration of martial law (see Taiwan Politics Review, 11 December 2024), and only 9.5% said it was the right thing to do.

 

On a more contentious issue, the legalisation of surrogacy, 49.0% approved, and 41.1% did not approve.

 

The TPOF periodically publishes English summaries of its polls; sign up via an email request.

 

Analysis: Diplomacy is good for a president; Lai’s travel to Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau (three countries that maintain diplomatic relations with the Republic of China) with transit stops in Hawaii and Guam, has resulted in a positive movement in the public’s approval of Lai. A visit by Lai in 2025 to the Caribbean and South America is likely, with transit stops in major American cities.

 

Regulators reject Uber Eats acquisition of foodpanda’s Taiwan business
On 25 December 2024, the Fair Trade Commission rejected Uber’s proposed acquisition of foodpanda’s Taiwan business. Uber had offered US$930 million to acquire the business, though per the joint statement issued by the parties on 13 May 2024, the transaction was subject to regulatory approval. An insurmountable hurdle for the parties was the Ministry of Labor’s opposition to the merger, previously publicly stated by then Minister of Labor Ho Pei-shan (何佩珊). The Ministry of Labor opposed the deal unless the delivery platforms and the National Delivery Industrial Union reached a consensus regarding the union’s demands about pay and workers' rights. Separately, the FTC was concerned that post-merger, the combined firm would have a market share that exceeds 90%.

 

Analysis: An overview of the requirements for private mergers and acquisitions in Taiwan notes that “regulatory approval process may sometimes take a long time”. However, the regulators appear to have moved quickly in this case, perhaps because the delivery workers union is a constituency politicians are sensitive to, and the vast numbers of consumers who utilise Uber Eats or foodpanda.

 

Government proposes another park/valley
On 3 January 2025, President Lai said the government is aiming to turn the southern region of Taiwan into a hub for artificial intelligence (AI) development and expand its applications in various sectors," that “will transform southern Taiwan into a hub for AI development and applications based on Taiwan's advantage in semiconductor and machinery manufacturing”. Lai was referring to the "Southern Taiwan Silicon Valley Program” announced by the Executive Yuan on 2 January 2025.

 

At this early date, it is unclear what impact the “Southern Taiwan Silicon Valley Program” will have on existing programs such as the Asian Silicon Valley plan (a project that commenced in President Tsai’s first year in office and is now in its phase 3.0) or the Shalun Smart Green Energy Science City in Tainan or the recently announced Taoyuan-Hsinchu-Miaoli Great Silicon Valley Plan.

 

Analysis: Recent governments have all proposed their version of “zones” for manufacturing or other economic activity; the Taoyuan-Hsinchu-Miaoli Great Silicon Valley Plan was only announced last year, and now the government plans another silicon valley in southern Taiwan. For additional discussion about the plethora of plans/zones in Taiwan see Taiwan Politics Review, 30 October 2024

 

Ongoing fallout over bullying incidents in government agencies
On 11 December 2024, a second investigation into the suicide of a Ministry of Labor (MOL) civil servant found evidence of workplace bullying (see Taiwan Politics Review, 11 December 2024), Labor Minister Hung Sun-han (洪申翰) said. Hung told a news conference that former Workforce Development Agency New Taipei Office head Hsieh Yi-jung (謝宜容) had assigned "impossible tasks" and employed a "highly inappropriate management style" with the deceased 39-year-old civil servant.

 

On 13 December 2024, the central government launched an online platform for civil servants to file complaints about workplace bullying, which the Central News Agency described as the governments “latest attempt to quell the anger sparked by recent reports of bullying”.

 

On 20 December 2024, after a performance review committee meeting found her to have engaged in bullying, a former head of the department of personnel at the Ministry of Justice and the government's top statistics agency lost her job.

 

Responding to a private sector incident that received much media coverage, on 24 December 2024 non-government organisation the Taiwan Alliance for Advancement of Youth Rights and Welfare wrote on its Facebook page that "Teenagers often face high risks in the labour environment during the job search or when they first start working because of their age, experience and skills," and that it is "extremely difficult" for young workers to seek help when faced with sexual assault or sexual harassment due to "unequal power relations" in the workplace. The post followed the suicide of a 17-year old former McDonald's employee after she was coerced into sex by her supervisor over a year-long period, per a social media post authored by the girl's mother. According to media reports, McDonalds issued a statement that it " deeply regrets the unfortunate death of the former employee and will fully cooperate with law enforcement agencies in their investigation", though the statement is not posted to the news section of McDonalds Taiwan’s website. On 25 December 2024, the Taipei City Department of Labor ordered (press release available in Mandarin) McDonald's to pay a fine of NT$1 million for violating the Gender Equality in Employment Act (available in English and Mandarin) in its handling of the matter. On 29 December 2024, several high schools issued public apologies after their male students posted misogynistic content on social media about the incident.

 

Subsequently, on 2 January 2025 media reported that McDonalds issued another press release (available on its website in Mandarin and dated 27 December 2024) in which McDonalds apologised and said "In this incident, we failed to take preventative action before it happened, and the handling was not timely nor comprehensive enough”.

 

Analysis: The author reiterates the recommendation that industry should review workplace bullying rules and complaint handling procedures to ensure they are consistent with, or exceed, Taiwan best practices. In light of the incident at McDonalds, this review should also cover accusations of workplace sexual harassment as well.

 

President Lai visits military facilities
We previously noted that President Lai has recently had an active schedule of interactions with Taiwan’s military (see Taiwan Politics Review, 18 September 2024). In recent weeks Lai again had a similarly active schedule of related interactions. Lai visited an army base on 3 January 2025, visited an air force base on 27 December 2024, and visited an army base on 27 December 2024. In addition, Lai attended the graduation ceremony of a new class of Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau officers on 7 January 2025 where he said the officers should protect national security and maintain societal order, Lai convened a meeting of the Presidential Office's Whole of Society Defense and Resilience Committee on 26 December 2024, visited a natural disaster preparedness exercise on 24 December 2024.

 

Separately, on 15 January 2025, the Ministry of National Defense said it has proposed pay raises for volunteer enlistees amid reports of a fourfold increase in military personnel opting out of their contracts early.

 

Analysis: This most recent round of military and resilience activities by President Lai came amid Chinese military activity around Taiwan during December, and weapons sales announcements by the outgoing Biden Administration (see below). The Ministry of National Defense reciprocated Lai’s support for the military by issuing a press release stating that under the revised Act Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures (see above), the national defense budget would be reduced by 28%.

 

The increase in volunteers (i.e., those who made the military a career, as distinguished from soldiers performing mandatory national service) who separate from the military is a significant issue for the Ministry of National Defense and each branch of the military. In a war, these professional soldiers (again, as distinguished from those performing mandatory national service) will be posted to the front lines to fight the invaders, and national service troops (or those who earlier did national service and are recalled in the event of an emergency) are expected to serve in support roles.

 

Surprise execution of a murderer
On 16 January 2016, the Ministry of Justice suddenly announced that a death row inmate would be executed later that day. Huang Lin-kai (黃麟凱) was sentenced to death in 2017 for the rape and murder of his ex-girlfriend and murder of her mother in 2013. After the execution, the Ministry of Justice issued a lengthy press release (available in Mandarin) defending the integrity of the internal review process that resulted in a recommendation that the Minister of Justice sign the execution order. This was the first use of the death penalty under President Lai, and Huang was selected ahead of other 36 death row inmates, many of whom have been on death row longer.

 

The Constitutional Court ruled last September that the death penalty is constitutional for the most heinous of premeditated murders (see Taiwan Politics Review, 30 October 2024). Anti-death penalty non-government organisations criticised the Lai Administration’s unexpected execution of a death row inmate, keeping in mind the recent Constitutional Court decision and the DPP’s historically anti-death penalty position. In addition, the National Human Rights Commission, which calls for the abolition of the death penalty, expressed deep regret over the Ministry of Justice's decision to carry out the execution.

 

By comparison, during Tsai Ing-wen’s two terms there were two executions, but during Ma Ying-jeou’s two terms there were 33 executions.

 

Analysis: With the rise in Lai’s approval rating (see above), it’s unclear why the Lai Administration wanted to demonstrate at this time its tough on crime credentials. Although at times (when a series of heinous crimes occur within a short period of time) public safety can dominate the public discussion in Taiwan, at present public safety is not an issue of particular focus. In addition, European Union criticism (see past criticism here and see below a criticism issued after the execution on 16 January 2025) also weighs on the government’s decision-making (though on the other hand, the Trump Administration will not criticise Taiwan over its use of the death penalty). Perhaps Lai wanted to demonstrate his firm grip on running the government despite the Legislative Yuan’s numerous attempts to exercise greater authority over the central government.

 

Significant developments in US-Taiwan relations
On 10 December 2024, the first agreement under the Taiwan-US Initiative on 21st-Century Trade officially came into effect, marking a "significant milestone" in bilateral trade relations, according to Taiwan's Office of Trade Negotiations. The agreement covers commitments to customs administration and trade facilitation, regulatory practices, rules for running domestic service industries, anti-corruption and small- and medium-sized enterprises. The Executive Yuan's Office of Trade Negotiations said in a statement (available in Mandarin) that both sides will continue to discuss implementation details and share any concerns.

 

On 12 December 2024, Robert O'Brien, United States national security advisor under President Trump from 2019 to 2021, confirmed delivering a congratulatory letter from President Lai to Donald Trump, calling it a "great start" for relations between the two sides. O’Brien said Trump was "very pleased" by the letter. O’Brien is the chair of a “Bipartisan Task Force on US-Taiwan Relations” at the Global Taiwan Institute, a Washington DC organisation close to the DPP-led government.

 

On 20 December 2024, the United States announced the sale to Taiwan of upgraded tactical data link systems and gun mounts for ships, valued at around US$295 million. This follows a sale announced on 29 November 2024 of spare parts for fighter jets and radar systems valued at US$385 million, and a sale announced on 25 October 2024 of three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems and related equipment valued at up to $1.16 billion and radar systems worth an estimated $828 million. In addition, on 20 December 2024, the White House said in a brief statement that President Joe Biden had authorized the drawdown "of up to US$571.3 million in defense articles and services of the Department of Defense, and military education and training, to provide assistance to Taiwan."

 

Separately, on 15 December 2024, the first tranche of 38 (out of a total of 108) M1A2T tanks purchased by Taiwan in 2019 arrived in Taiwan.

 

On 16 December 2024, an exclusive report in Taiwan media outlet Storm claimed that US special forces troops were training the Taiwan police’s 2nd Special Police Corps"(保安警察第二總隊) as part of the unit’s role to protect Taiwan’s critical infrastructure.

 

On 18 December 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense issued its annual “Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China” report, in which it noted that China increased its military pressure on Taiwan in 2023 and took other steps in preparation for a potential invasion, according to an annual report published by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) on Wednesday (U.S. time).

 

On 23 December 2024, President Joe Biden signed the Fiscal Year 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which provides military articles and training worth up to US$300 million to support Taiwan.

 

On 10 January 2025, a “US-Taiwan Working Group Meeting on International Organizations” was held in Washington, DC. The US State Department issued a press release, as did Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (available in English and Mandarin). The State Department’s statement reiterated “US support for Taiwan’s meaningful participation in international fora is in line with our one China policy, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances.”

 

On 13 January 2025, the National Development Council opened a “Startup Island Taiwan Silicon Valley hub” in Palo Alto, California, to help Taiwan technology start-ups gain global visibility (press release available in Mandarin).

 

On 15 January 2025, Senator Marco Rubio (Republican - Florida) said at a hearing to confirm his nomination as Secretary of State that defending Taiwan is “critical”.

 

Also on 15 January 2025, by 423-1 vote, the United States House of Representatives passed the United States-Taiwan Expedited Double-Tax Relief Act, which seeks to reduce tax payments by Taiwanese businesses and employees in the US.

 

On 16 January 2025, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a US$500,000 donation to disaster relief in California following the recent wildfires (press release is available in English and Mandarin).

 

On 17 January 2025, former Vice President Mike Pence made a brief visit to Taiwan at the invitation of private organisations.

 

Also on 17 January 2025, the Ministry of National Defense said it has signed with the US a two-year specialized training program for the navy, a rare public acknowledgement of a bilateral training program.

 

Analysis: With regard to the weapons and equipment sales to Taiwan, and the authorisation to drawdown from Defense Department stocks equipment to gift to Taiwan, it appears that President Biden wants his legacy on Taiwan to be that his administration did its part to arm Taiwan. However, the use of drawdown authority recently became controversial when many of the items donated to Taiwan turned out to be damaged and/or otherwise sub-standard.

 

European relations in focus
On 6 December 2024, the Ministry of Culture’s National Museum of Taiwan Literature in Tainan helped an opening ceremony for an exhibition titled, “Typeset Hopes and Dreams: Exhibition on Contemporary Czech Literature”. David Steinke, head of the Czech Economic and Cultural Office in Taipei attended the event.

 

On 10 December 2024, the Central News Agency published an exclusive interview (available in English and Mandarin) with Czech Senate President Miloš Vystrčil.

 

On 11 December 2024, the cabinet of Lithuania’s outgoing government approved a draft law on the avoidance of double taxation and prevention of tax evasion between Lithuania  and Taiwan.

 

On 12 December 2024, the Czech Chamber of Deputies Foreign Affairs Committee adopted a resolution on “the misinterpretation of UN Resolution 2758 by the People’s Republic of China and support for Taiwan’s participation in international organisations”. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a press release to express its appreciation (available in English and Mandarin).

 

On 14 December 2024, French historian Nicolas Werth, chairperson of human rights non-government organisation International Memorial Association, and Alexandra Polivanova, a Russian human rights advocate who now lives in Poland praised Taiwan's transitional justice efforts during their visit to Taiwan to which revolved around activities to mark Human Rights Day on 10 December 2024.

 

On 14 December 2024, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a press release (available in English and Mandarin) Taiwan has donated 4 million euros (US$4.2 million) to an initiative led by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to support Ukraine's private insurance market. The donation, made by the TaiwanBusiness-EBRD Technical Cooperation Fund to the Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Guarantee Facility (URGF), will be to revitalize the war risk insurance market in Ukraine and help generate the international community's willingness to invest in Ukraine.

 

On 14 December 2024, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a press release (available in English and Mandarin) to take note of a recent speech (available in English) delivered by new North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Secretary General Mark Rutte in which Rutte criticized China’s actions towards Taiwan.

 

On 15 December 2024, Taiwan media reported that a recent survey in France showed public opinion overwhelmingly supports Taiwan rather than China when it comes to the question of Taiwanese sovereignty. The survey was conducted by the Descartes Foundation and the Institute of Advanced Studies in National Defence and the findings are available in French.

 

On 16 December 2024, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a press release (available in English and Mandarin) to express its condolences after Cyclone Chido hit France’s overseas department of Mayotte, and pledged EUR250,000 in aid.

 

On 17 December 2024, the European Union and Taiwan held the third “Trade and Investment Dialogue” in Brussels. According to the European Union press release, “Both sides expressed their appreciation for the recently achieved understanding on offshore wind investment conditions”. Minister of Economic Affairs Kuo Jyh-huei (郭智輝) attended (see below).

 

Also on 17 December 2024, a Taiwan government newsletter reported that Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) gave an interview to Lithuania National Radio and Television recently to discuss key issues such as Taiwan-Lithuania ties and cross-strait relations.

 

On 22 December 2024, in an interview on Radio Free Europe’s “Current Time” program, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs François Chih-chung Wu (吳志中) said Taiwan would continue to strengthen self-defense capabilities and work with like-minded countries to safeguard democracy in the Indo-Pacific.

 

On 27 December 2024, the Taipei Representative Office in Poland, the Lviv, Ukraine city government, and the Multidisciplinary Clinical Hospital of Emergency and Intensive Care signed a memorandum on cooperation and partnership for the reconstruction of the UNBROKEN National Rehabilitation Center in Lviv. Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyy visited Taiwan as part of the signing of the memorandum.

 

On 5 January 2025, media reported that deputy foreign minister Tien Chung-kwang (田中光) will become Taiwan's new representative to the Netherlands. Tien's most recent overseas posting was as Taiwan's top envoy to India from 2013 to 2020, and he was also ambassador to Tuvalu, with other overseas postings to Pacific island countries, Canada, and, the United States.

 

On 6 January 2025, Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Council and Germany’s Alexander von Humboldt Foundation renewed their cooperative memorandum of understanding, which facilitates research in Taiwan by outstanding young German scientists.

 

In a farewell press event on 9 January 2025, the United Kingdom’s outgoing representative to Taiwan said that that the signing of the UK-Taiwan Enhanced Trade Partnership (ETP) Arrangement is a "major highlight... of my four-year posting in Taiwan."

 

On 10 January 2025, Taiwan pledged a donation of US$560,000 to Bucha, Ukraine to help rebuild roads connecting the Kyiv Regional Center for Mental Health to surrounding areas.

 

In an interview published on 12 January 2025, Finland’s representative to Taiwan said that his country and Taiwan could complement each other's strengths and work closer together on technology, green energy, civil resilience, and more.

 

On 16 January 2025, the European Union External Action service issued a statement to criticise Taiwan’s execution of a death row inmate. The statement called on Taiwan “to apply and maintain a de facto moratorium, and to pursue a consistent policy towards the full abolition of the death penalty in Taiwan”.

 

Analysis: It’s a good sign that despite new administrations, the European Union and Taiwan have continued to hold the bilateral “Trade and Investment Dialogue” and that the Minister of Economic Affairs can visit Brussels to attend in person. On 18 November 2024, President Lai attended the “2024 European Union Investment Forum” and expressed the hope that the EU and Taiwan can sign an economic partnership agreement (Lai’s remarks are available in English and Mandarin).

 

Other political issues to monitor
Among the other issues we are monitoring is a central government plan to attract private capital totaling NT$682.9 billion (US$21 billion) for public infrastructure projects aimed to create 126,000 jobs nationwide from 2025 to 2028, recent media reports that the number of births in Taiwan this year will fall for the ninth consecutive year despite 2024 being a dragon year in which births historically increase, possible misappropriation of more than NT$50 million (US$1.53 million) from the "employment stabilization fund" (which employers of migrant workers in certain sectors contribute to) under former Labor Minister Hsu Ming-chun (許銘春) who allegedly used the funds to hold a concert at which Hsu sang onstage to mark the 20th anniversary of the promulgation of the Gender Equality in Employment Act, the Legislative Yuan approved a new president and new members of the Examination Yuan, the cancellation of a central government program (with a budget of NT$4.4 billion) to provide elementary school children free milk, polling among potential DPP candidates against the likely KMT candidate in the 2026 Kaohsiung City mayoral election, revisions to the Sports Industry Development Act (unamended law is available in English and Mandarin) to include penalties for match fixing as well as to assist athletes to form labor unions, KMT legislators call for improved government efforts to tackle absconded migrant workers (the number of unaccounted-for migrant workers rose to 90,269 in November 2024, from 48,545 in January 2020), ongoing disputes about the 2025 central government budget with the central government increasingly critical of the KMT and TPP votes to reduce the budget, and the Legislative Yuan’s approval of two and rejection of two nominees to the Fair Trade Commission.

 

Analysis: The cancellation of the free milk program appears odd; parents of young children are a constituency valued by politicians. However, the program drew complaints from teachers and administrators about supply shortages, schools' lack of refrigerated storage space, and interruptions caused by the twice-a-week distribution schedule. The National Federation of Teachers Unions applauded the cabinet for being receptive to public opinion and taking action, while also expressing hope that the government had "learned its lesson."

 

Travel by Taiwan politicians
On 8 December 2024, former premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) led a delegation to the 2024 Cross-Strait CEO Summit (CSCS) in Xiamen. Liu served as Premier from 2008 to 2009 under President Ma and is the chairman of Taiwan's CSCS group.

 

The week of 9 December 2024, Chinese Nationalist Party Legislative Caucus Convenor Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁) (KMT - Hualien Constituency) visited Hong Kong to promote tourism (as part of the resumption of direct flights between Hong Kong and Hualien). Fu also visited the mainland this year (see Taiwan Politics Review, 22 May 2024), a visit that was heavily criticised by the DPP.

 

On 11 December 2024, Deputy Foreign Minister François Wu (吳志中) visited Somaliland’s capital Hargeisa to attend Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi's presidential inauguration ceremony.

 

On 14 December 2024, former DPP legislator Julian Kuo (郭正亮) attended a ceremony in in his family’s ancestral village in Fujian. In recent years Kuo has become a frequent guest on political talk shows during which he often criticizes the DPP government.

 

During the week of 16 December 2024, Minister of Economic Affairs Kuo visited Europe. Kuo attended the EU-Taiwan “Trade and Investment Dialogue” in Brussels (see above), visited the site where Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is building a factory in Germany, and attended the opening of a "Taiwan Trade and Investment Center" in Czechia.

 

From 18 December 2024 to 26 December 2024, former President Ma again led a delegation of young persons to China, this time with stops in Chengdu and Harbin. The first Ma-led delegation this year visited China in April (see Taiwan Politics Review, 23 April 2024).

 

On the weekend of 4 January 2025, Taitung County Magistrate April Yao (the surname is pronounced Ráo) (KMT) visited China to promote the county’s agricultural exports. Her meeting counterparties included the director of the central government’s Taiwan Affairs Office Song Tao (宋濤).

 

During the week of 13 January 2025, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) visited Palau to attend the presidential inauguration.

 

During the week of 20 January 2025, Legislative Yuan Speaker Han led a cross-party delegation to attend the inauguration of Donald Trump.

 

Analysis: Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan Speaker leading a delegation to the US president’s inauguration has recent precedent and is thus not something new. Then Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) (KMT) led the delegation in 2009 and 2013, and then Speaker You Si-kun (游錫堃) (DPP) led the delegation in 2017. Then Representative to the United States Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) attended Joe Biden’s inauguration in 2021, as due to the Covid-19 pandemic a delegation did not travel from Taiwan.

 

Notable foreign visitors to Taiwan
During the week of 9 December 2024, a delegation from the Polish Senate visited Taiwan, led by Polish Senate Deputy Marshal Michał Kamiński. The group included Krzysztof Truskolaski and Beata Małecka-Libera, chair and deputy chair of the Polish-Taiwanese Parliamentarian Group, respectively, and other parliamentarians.

 

On 9 December 2024, François Valérian, chair of the Berlin-based Transparency International, attended an event in Taipei in honour of International Anti-Corruption Day. Attendees included Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun (鄭麗君), Minister of Justice Cheng Ming-chien (鄭銘謙) and Director-General Feng Cheng (馮成) of the Ministry of Justice’s Agency Against Corruption. Cheng and Feng signed a pledge for transparent investigations in line with international standards.

 

During the week of 16 December 2024, a delegation of Shanghai municipal officials led by Deputy Mayor Hua Yuan (華源) visited Taipei to attend the 15th “Twin Cities Forum”, (see below) hosted this year by Taipei City Mayor Wayne Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) and the Taipei City Government. Representatives of the two cities signed memorandums of understanding on smart medical care and zoo animal exchanges.

 

During the week of 16 December 2024, a delegation from the Washington DC think tank Brookings Institution visited Taiwan (the Presidential Office issued a press release in English and Mandarin).

 

On 18 December 2024, former US Secretary of Energy Steve Chu (朱棣文) spoke at a forum in Taipei, where he said “Taiwan needs nuclear energy” and “nuclear energy is safe and provides an important backup if LNG and coal supply is cut off”.

 

During the week of 6 January 2025, former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo again visited Taiwan at the invitation of a non-government organisation, as did Pompeo’s former China policy adviser Miles Yu (余茂春) at the invitation of a different non-government organisation.

 

Other visitors from the United States during the week of 6 January 2025 included a delegation from the US – Taiwan Business Council who met with Vice President Hsiao, and a delegation from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute who met with President Lai (press release available in English and Mandarin).

 

Also during the week of 6 January 2025, a delegation from the Italian Chamber of Deputies visited Taiwan.

 

During the week of 13 January 2025, former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis visited Taiwan where he received from President Lai the Order of Brilliant Star 2nd Class (Grand Cordon) (二等(大綬)景星勳章) (Presidential Office press release available in English and Mandarin); by comparison, in 2022 former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was awarded the Order of Brilliant Star 1st Class (Special Grand Cordon) (一等(特種大綬)景星勳章) by former President Tsai. The Central News Agency also published an interview with Landsbergis.

 

Separately, during the week of 13 January 2025, another Lithuanian delegation, led by Vilmantas Vitkauskas, vice-chancellor and the head of the National Crisis Management Center (NCMC) of the Chancellery of Lithuania government, and Vilijus Samuila, acting director of Communication and Cultural Diplomacy Department under the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry, visited Taiwan.

 

Also during the week of 13 January 2025, United Kingdom Member of Parliament Tom Tugendhat visited Taiwan.

 

Analysis: Amid the current state of China-Taiwan relations (which recently includes China military exercises near Taiwan and the arrest in China of three practitioners of the I-Guan Dao (一貫道) faith), the Twin Cities Forum became a contentious issue between the central government and the Taipei City Government. On 11 December 2024, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) gave its approval for the Shanghai delegation to attend, with MAC deputy chairman and spokesperson saying that the Taiwan's government extended the "utmost goodwill" but if there is "deterioration in the situation" (i.e., cross-straits relations) prior to the forum, the Taipei City government will comply with a central government decision to postpone the event at any time. The MAC subsequently confirmed that ten delegation applicants were rejected as a “expression of protest and dissatisfaction” towards China’s recent actions. At the forum, Mayor Chiang called for "fewer roaring sounds from vessels and planes" and stressed the importance of continued cross-strait exchanges

 

Ross Darrell Feingold (@RossFeingold) is a lawyer at Titan Attorneys-at-Law and political risk analyst in Taipei.

 

Disclosures:

1. Mr. Feingold is a senior adviser to the Asia Pacific Youth Association (亞太青年協會, APYA) a Taiwan non-government and non-partisan organisation that encourages youth in Taiwan to be more involved in public policy issues. The honorary chairmen of the APYA are Mark Ho (何志偉, DPP and current Deputy Secretary-General of the Presidential Office), Charles Chen (陳以信, KMT and current Head of the KMT Overseas Department), and Andy Chiu (邱臣遠, TPP and current Acting Mayor of Hsinchu City); Ho, Chen and Chiu are all former members of the Legislative Yuan. The APYA periodically receives grants from the DPP, KMT and TPP to underwrite the cost of APYA events.

 

2. Mr. Feingold recently received an honorarium to appear on a YouTube program about geopolitical issues hosted by the TPP Foreign Affairs Department

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