Politics & Law
Taiwan Politics Review – President Lai transits Hawaii and Guam
Significant developments over the past month: Ongoing investigation of Ko Wen-je, a new proposed description for China-Taiwan relations, Minister of Labor resigns, and more…
By Ross Darrell Feingold
Core Pacific City / Ko Wen-je investigation
On 22 November 2024, the Taipei District Prosecutors Office filed a motion to extend the detention of Lee Wen-tsung (李文宗), formerly an aide to then Taipei Mayor and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), who himself remains detained (see Taiwan Politics Review, 19 November 2024) in the investigation. Prosecutors said extending the detention was necessary because the corruption charges laid against Lee are felonies that carry a minimum prison sentence of five years, and because he is a flight risk. On 26 November 2024, the Taipei District Court agreed to extend Lee’s detention by sixty more days.
A Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation poll published on 19 November 2024 showed that 31.5% of respondents were sympathetic to Ko, and 55.0% were not sympathetic.
Analysis: The large number of poll respondents who are not sympathetic to Ko indicates that the public, for now, believes# that it is likely wrongdoing occurred in the consent from Ko's municipal administration to increase the floor area ratio of the redevelopment of the shopping mall into an office building. Even if prosecutors ultimately do not bring charges, it will be challenging for Ko to restore perceptions of the TPP in the court of public opinion.
Labor minister resigns over civil servant suicide
On 22 November 2024, Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) accepted the resignation of Minister of Labor Ho Pei-shan (何佩珊). This follows the suicide of a Workforce Development Agency employee on 4 November 2024, after which colleagues informed the media that the deceased’s supervisor, Hsieh Yi-jung (謝宜容), head of the WDA's northern Taiwan offices, had bullied her subordinates. Hsieh was subsequently banned from leaving Taiwan while prosecutors investigate potential criminal charges.
Ho initially attempted to resign on 20 November 2024, and the acceptance of her resignation came after several days of angry questions at the Legislative Yuan and significant media coverage of the incident. Later on 22 November 2024, Legislator Hung Sun-han (洪申翰) (Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) - At-Large) was named the new minister.
On 28 November 2024, Deputy Health Minister Lin Ching-yi (林靜儀) said the government is considering the introduction of mental health leave for civil servants.
In a situation similar to Taiwan's #MeToo revelations in 2023, other cases of workplace bullying were quickly reported in the media, including a division head at the Ministry of Health and Welfare (MOHW) Taiwan Centers for Disease Control who was transferred to a nonsupervisory role after an internal investigation found she had bullied subordinates, along with additional accusations of workplace bullying at the MOHW and its subordinate agencies. Separately, the National Development Council removed the director of its Department of Overall Planning after an internal investigation confirmed her involvement in workplace bullying.
On 4 December 2024, Minister Hung said that the Ministry of Labor might create a hotline for the general public to report workplace bullying.
On 7 December 2024, the TPP organized a rally against workplace bullying and in support of civil servants ability to form a labour union; currently civil servants can only join the National Civil Servant Association, which offers limited protections.
Analysis: This is second ministerial resignation following the inauguration of President William Lai Ching-te (賴清德) on 20 May 2024, following the resignation of the Minister of Transportation and Communications (see Taiwan Politics Review, 20 August 2024). Including the resignation of the Straits Echange Foundation chairman (see Taiwan Politics Review, 16 July 2024), it is the third senior political appointee resignation. Although the incident occurred several levels below the minister’s daily interactions with ministry staff, and it would be unfair to blame workplace culture issues on a minister who only took office on 20 May 2024, it came as no surprise that Ho resigned to take political responsibility for the incident.
Industry should monitor whether the proposal for mental health leave is implemented; if it is for civil servants, there will be pressure to do it for the private sector too. Industry should also monitor whether the Ministry of Labor creates a hotline for workers in the private sector to report workplace bullying. This would be a good time to review workplace bullying rules and complaint handling procedures to ensure they are consistent with, or exceed, Taiwan best practices.
Foreign ministry censured over foreign service officer suicide
On 22 November 2024, the Control Yuan censured the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) for mishandling an investigation into the death of a diplomat posted to San Paulo, Brazil in 2023. The Control Yuan (press release available in Mandarin) accused MOFA of a failure to review systemic flaws or hold Representative Feng Kwang-chung (馮光中), accountable following the suicide of section chief Felix Wang (王之化).
Analysis: At times the Control Yuan might seem like an extraneous branch of government given other agencies (such as the Ministry of Justice Agency Against Corruption) have the ability to investigate wrongdoing. However, the Control Yuan often does good work as an “ombudsman” investigating wrongdoing that does not necessarily rise to the level of corruption or criminal charges.
Tsai in Canada: CPTPP, weapons deliveries
During her trip to Canada (see Taiwan Politics Review, 19 November 2024), former President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on 21 November 2024 urged Taiwanese compatriots resident in Canada to work for Taiwan by supporting its bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (weeks later, the CPTPP member countries declined to proceed with Taiwan’s application). Speaking at a community luncheon, Tsai expressed her gratitude for their contribution to Taiwan from 2016-2024, when she was in office.
At the Halifax International Security Forum, Tsai said that the United States should prioritize helping Ukraine despite the looming threat of a Chinese cross-strait invasion of the self-governing island. "They should do whatever they can to help the Ukrainians… We [Taiwan] still have time."
Analysis: Taiwan had put much faith on Canada’s ability to influence the CPTPP members for Taiwan's application. Then President Tsai appealed to visiting Canadian parliamentary delegations in 2018 and 2023 to support Taiwan’s application. However, the CPTPP operates via consensus, and there are several members who will not risk China’s wrath by approving Taiwan to enter the CPTPP before China enters. On 9 December 2024, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said that he believed neither Singapore nor Malaysia had opposed Taiwan's bid to join CPTPP.
Politicians congratulate Chinese Taipei baseball team
On 24 November 2024, following Chinese Taipei’s victory over Japan in the Premier 12 baseball tournament, politicians and political parties immediately took to social media to express their congratulations. Messages included those from President Lai, former President Tsai, the Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang, or KMT) and the TPP. Japanese superstar Ohtani Shohei (大谷 翔平), who did not play for Samurai Japan in the tournament, also congratulated Chinese Taipei.
A controversy arose after Legislator Roger Kuo Kuo-wen (郭國文) (DPP - Tainan 2nd Constituency) publicly called on Chinese Taipei Baseball Association chair Jeffrey Koo Jr. (辜仲諒) to add NT$30 million to the award money Koo had promised to the Chinese Taipei team if it won the tournament. Koo had said before the first round of the Premier 12 tournament that he would pay Taiwan's baseball team members and coaches a total of NT$40 million in award money if they won. After Chinese Taipei advanced to the final round in Tokyo, Koo promised another NT$30 million if they won the tournament. Kuo posted on his Facebook that Koo should bring the award money up to NT$100 million but he later backtracked on his post, today, saying he was speaking on impulse due to his excitement over the team's victory.
Legislators also suggested that an image of the winning team be placed on the NT$500 bill, and a national holiday to commemorate the victory.
Analysis: Politicians in Taiwan love to use baseball themes. In the 2024 election, DPP candidate Lai used a baseball theme (photo here) as did the KMT (video here), and in the 2020 election season the KMT published an advertisement with candidates holding various sports equipment (video here). With regards to the possible national holiday, domestic industry trade associations would likely oppose this.
Politicians surrender, bailed, convicted
On 25 November 2024, former Taiyen Green Energy chairman and former DPP politician Chen Chi-yu (陳啟昱) appeared in court accompanied by his lawyer. Chen had previously failed to show up for a court date on 1 November 2024 (see Taiwan Politics Review, 19 November 2024), prompting speculation that he had fled Taiwan. According to media reports, prosecutors filed a motion to detain Chen and hold him incommunicado to prevent him from potentially fleeing the country, destroying evidence or colluding with others, and the court granted the request.
On 27 November, an appellate court upheld the sentences against seven out of eight individuals convicted in a shooting on 10 November 2022 targeting properties owned by former DPP Central Executive Committee member Kuo Tsai-chin (郭再欽) and former Tainan City Councillor Hsieh Tsai-wang (謝財旺) (Independent – Tainan 2nd Constituency).
On 28 November 2024, the Kaohsiung District Court banned City Councillor Huang Shao-ting (黃紹庭) (KMT - Kaohsiung 8th Constituency) from leaving the country for eight months over an ongoing corruption case. Huang was detained on 30 September 2024 (see Taiwan Politics Review, 30 October 2024) for misuse of staff salaries.
On 29 November 2024, former Taipei City Councillor Lin Ying-meng (林穎孟) (Independent - Taipei 6th Constituency) was found guilty on corruption charges for fraudulently collecting government-funded office assistant salaries and subsidies, and she was sentenced to nine years and four months in prison. Lin was originally elected as a New Power Party councillor in 2018 before sitting as an independent. Lin lost her re-election bid in 2022 amid the criminal charges filed months before the election.
In a case of violence targeting a government ministry, a bed-and-breakfast owner who fired gunshots inside the Ministry of Digital Affairs lobby on 28 March 2024 was sentenced on 2 December 2024 to four years and 10 months in prison. The shooter objected to government policies that do not encourage tourists from China to visit Taiwan.
Analysis: Taiyen Green Energy is a subsidiary of Taiyen Biotech, whose largest shareholder is the Ministry of Economic Affairs, which holds 38.88% of the company's shares, per the company's website. Corporate wrongdoing at a government-controlled company carries is a political risk for the ruling DPP.
Political talk show hosts sentenced 18 months for slander
On 26 November 2024, the Taipei District Court sentenced well-known talk show hosts Clara Chou (周玉蔻) and Tsai Yu-chen (蔡玉真) to 18 months in prison for aggravated slander and the unlawful use of personal data. Chou and Tsai were found guilty of violating Article 310 of the Criminal Code (available in English and Mandarin) and Article 41 of the Personal Data Protection Act (available in English and Mandarin) for "spreading false information" on political commentary shows and social media about an alleged extramarital affair involving the father of then-candidate for Taipei City Mayor Wayne Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安). The offense of slander can result in a prison sentence of up to one year, while "impairing another person's interests" by using their personal data can result in a sentence of up to five years.
Analysis: The allegations against Chiang's father turned out to be irrelevant to the election result. Chiang was elected Mayor with 42.29% of the vote, versus independent (but TPP endorsed) Vivian Huang Shan-shan (黃珊珊) who received 25.14% and DPP’s Chen Shih-chung (陳時中) who received 31.93%.
UK parliament rejects China's UN-related claims on Taiwan
On 28 November 2024, the British House of Commons adopted a motion on Taiwan's international status and rejecting China's interpretation of United Nations Resolution 2758. Similar motions were adopted recently in the parliaments of Canada, the Netherlands and Australia, as well as by the European Parliament.
Analysis: The parliamentary resolution initiative began after the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (對華政策跨國議會聯盟, IPAC) held a meeting in Taipei this past July (see Taiwan Politics Review, 19 August 2024) and approved a model resolution for parliaments worldwide to use. It is likely more parliaments will pass such resolutions in the coming months. It certainly helps the effort that former President Tsai is now traveling the world meeting parliamentarians.
Lai's support falls again
A Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) poll published on 19 November 2024 revealed that 43% of respondents disapproved of President Lai, and 42.8% approved. Upon his inauguration in May, 58% had approved. At a similar point in time in her first term, President Tsai’s approval fell to 41.4% from 69.9% upon inauguration.
The TPOF periodically publishes English summaries of its polls; sign up via an email request.
Analysis: Democratically elected leaders often enjoy a honeymoon period, but the length of time the honeymoon lasts can vary considerably. Lai's approval is approximately the same as the percentage of the vote he received in the presidential election on 13 January 2024, 40.05%.
DPP legislative caucus controversial Threads post
A Threads account operated by the DPP Legislative Yuan caucus quickly deleted a post it made on 3 December 2024 suggesting that Taiwan's legislature faces a similar situation to that which prompted South Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol to declare martial law. The post noted that Yoon had declared martial law and "Have no doubt, we who are Team Taiwan are every second and every minute opposing global dark and evil forces encroaching on [Taiwan]". The post also suggested that opposition parties in the Legislature Yuan had obstructed national security proposals, "unconstitutionally expanded" their powers, and cut the defense budget, among other claims. The post was deleted 20 minutes after it was made, and a statement criticizing martial law was posted in its place.
The KMT issued a statement criticizing the DPP's deleted post and called on President Lai, who is DPP chairman, to apologise, and the TPP criticised the deleted post with an accusation that "today's DPP has a martial law mentality hidden in its heart."
President Lai posted on Facebook while on his overseas trip (see below) that Taiwan's democracy was hard-earned and that the values of democracy and freedom are the cornerstone of Taiwan's connections with the world. Following President Lai’s return to Taiwan, speaking at an International Human Rights Day ceremony on 7 December 2024, he said "Past martial law greatly harms Taiwan, must not be repeated".
In the aftermath of the controversy, a KMT legislator proposed changes to the president’s powers under the Martial Law Act (available in Mandarin but not English), that would require the Legislative Yuan to ratify a presidential declaration of martial law within 56 hours for it to be valid, versus the one month ratification period under current law.
Analysis: It remains a mystery who authored the post; some media reports and pundits suggested it was Legislator Huang Jie (黃捷) (DPP - Kaohsiung City 6th Constituency) rather than a junior editor (“小編”). Regardless, the speed at which it was removed, and a large amount of negative media coverage, indicates that the DPP Legislative Caucus underestimated the impact of this post, and the public did not agree with the analogy that the post attempted to make.
Wang Jyn-ping proposes new way to describe China-Taiwan relations
On 8 December 2024, former Legislator Wang Jyn-ping (王金平) (KMT) who served as Legislative Yuan Speaker from 1 February 1999 to 31 January 2016, launched a new think tank, and at the launch event he proposed a new description for China-Taiwan relations: "the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to each other in terms of governance, but share sovereignty without division" (「兩岸治權互不隸屬，主權同而不分」). The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) responded that statements on this topic must safeguard Taiwan’s free and democratic system and accept the Republic of China’s existence (任何相關討論，都必須確保台灣自由民主體制，正視中華民國的存在). KMT Chairman Eric Chu Li-luan (朱立倫) said Wang’s proposal is in the interest of peace and could be a basis for the two sides to have dialogue.
Analysis: It’s unclear why Wang, in semi-retirement, has decided to involve himself in this issue. It could be that Wang simply wants to remain relevant in Taiwan politics and specifically, in cross-straits relations. Some speculate that Wang might challenge KMT Chairman Chu in the next party chairman election which is due to occur in the third quarter of 2025 (Chu began a four-year term on 5 October 2021). Regardless, Wang’s framework, which does not mention the 1992 Consensus (which the KMT officially still supports as the basis for cross-straits relations), appears to be a repackaging of the 1992 Consensus using different words.
As for China, it’s likely that it prefers the 1992 Consensus "as is" without repackaging it.
European relations in focus
During the week of 18 November 2024, Foreign Minister Lin continued his trip to Belgium, Lithuania, and Poland (see Taiwan Politics Review, 19 November 2024). In Warsaw, Lin announced that direct flights between Taiwan and Poland will soon be launched, and also announced a donation of over 2,600 laptops and power generation equipment to the Association of Ukrainian Cities. On 26 November 2024, Lin posted on X about Taiwan companies with manufacturing operations in Poland, specifically naming Chimei Foods (since 2024), Compal Electronics (since 2024) and Ideal Bike (since 1999).
On 21 November 2024 and 22 November 2024, the sixth bilateral energy dialogue and 19th renewable energy conference between Taiwan and the United Kingdom were held.
On 27 November 2024, Foreign Minister Lin attended a reception marking the close of the year of Netherlands-Taiwan innovation and culture at the invitation of the Netherlands Office Taipei.
On 29 November 2024, Foreign Minister Lin attended the opening of a European Christmas Market in Taipei.
On 2 December 2024, Taiwan's representative to Hungary, Liu Shih-chung (劉世忠) was named as representative to Vietnam. Liu had served in Hungary since September 2020.
Also on 2 December 2024, Taiwan and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) signed a memorandum of understanding to enhance bilateral exchanges and cooperation, and separately, on 2 December 2024 the Taiwan Space Agency signed a memorandum of understanding with the Polish Space Agency to lay out a framework for closer cooperation in the space industry.
On 4 December 2024, the Taiwan-Austria Economic Dialogue took place via video conference and focused on enhancing collaboration in digital governance, life sciences, and research and development. The Ministry of Economic Affairs International Trade Administration issued a press release in Mandarin.
On 9 December 2024 the president of China Airlines said that it will "prioritize adding direct flights to Prague and Vienna in the second half of 2025 due to increasing demand" beyond the current two weekly flights to Prague and the current four weekly flights to Vienna.
Analysis: Liu Shih-chung was a tireless advocate for Taiwan in Hungary and Europe, and his transfer to Vietnam is unfortunate for Europe-Taiwan ties even if it might benefit ties between Taiwan and Vietnam. Foreign Minister Lin’s trip to Europe is not a breakthrough. For example, then Foreign Minister Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) visited Prague, Brussels, and Milan in June 2023, and he visited Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania in November 2023, and he also visited Europe in 2021. Regardless, amid tensions between China and the EU, the trend is that EU member countries have a greater tolerance for public engagement with Taiwan (including government officials) than EU members had in the past.
Other political issues to monitor
Among the other issues we are monitoring is potential public anger over a Taipei Rapid Transit Corp. (which operates Taipei Metro) proposal to reduce the cashback rate under its frequent passengers program starting from next year (though the monthly NT$1,200 monthly TPasses will not be affected), the proposal to change the Constitutional Court quorum requirements (see Taiwan Politics Review, 19 November 2024) (a criticism of the proposal was recently published in English and Mandarin, and a recent article about the dispute was titled “Legislative bill places cloud of uncertainty over Constitutional Court”), Minister of Economic Affairs JW Kuo’s (郭智輝) recent comments with regard to nuclear energy (a “consensus on nuclear energy and nuclear safety is easy; the difficulty is a consensus on handling nuclear waste”); a criticism of Kuo’s comments was recently published in English and Mandarin), the MOHW decides to deal with legalizing surrogacy at a later date rather than include the issue in upcoming revisions to the Assisted Reproduction Act (available in English and Mandarin) (on 5 December 2024, an anti-surrogacy protest was held outside the Legislative Yuan), and the upcoming “Shanghai-Taipei Twin-City Forum” on 17 December 2024 in Taipei.
Analysis: Minister Kuo has made multiple positive comments about nuclear energy; examples include comments in May and October. However, as of now there is little likelihood that the service life of Taiwan’s existing nuclear reactors will be extended.
Travel by Taiwan politicians
On 22 November 2024, the Presidential Office and MOFA announced President Lai’s first overseas trip from 30 November 2024 to 6 December 2024, to Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau. All three countries maintain diplomatic relations with the Republic of China. Hours after the announcement was made, five Republican members of the United States House of Representatives called on Secretary of State Antony Blinken to not impose conditions on Lai’s transit stops. During a stopover in Hawaii, Lai met with politicians, delivered a speech at think tank East-West Center, visited the USS Arizona memorial, visited the state emergency operations center, and had a teleconference with former House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi. During a stopover in Guam, President Lai held a national security meeting via video conferencing to discuss the South Korea political crisis, and had a teleconference with United States House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson.
During the week of 8 December 2024, DPP Secretary General Lin Yu-chang (林右昌) visited Japan.
Analysis: The timing of President Lai’s trip, coming between Thanksgiving and Christmas, might have made it difficult for Members of Congress to meet Lai in the United States, and could be a factor in why the stopovers were in Hawaii and Guam. Although it is understandable that Lai wanted to make an overseas trip as soon as possible into his tenure, a trip to Taiwan’s allies in the Caribbean, with stopovers on the U.S. east and west coasts and made after the Trump Administration and new Congress take office might have been higher profile and more productive. Such a trip will probably be Lai’s next overseas trip.
Notable foreign visitors to Taiwan
During the week of 25 November 2024, US Senator Jeff Merkley (Democrat – Oregon) began a three day visit to Taiwan; Merkley is a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and co-chair of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. Merkley also authored the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act and Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act. Merkley met with President Lai (press release in English and Mandarin) and separately met with Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴). Also during the week of 25 November 2024, a delegation from the American Legion visited Taiwan and met with President Lai.
On 27 November 2024, Paraguay's foreign minister, Rubén Ramírez Lezcano, arrived in Taiwan for a four-day visit during which a reciprocal visa-free agreement was signed.
Also on 27 November 2024, a group of students and their chaperones from China arrived in Taiwan at the invitation of former president Ma Ying-jeou's (馬英九) foundation. The tour group consists of students and faculty from seven of China’s top universities, including Olympic gold medallists Ma Long (馬龍) and Yang Qian (楊倩). Shortly before the visit, an anonymous official cited by media reports said that the delegation members are all affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party and the delegation is a deliberate move to facilitate propaganda efforts. KMT Chairman Chu issued a statement emphasizing the importance of cross-straits exchanges and criticized the government for using an anonymous official to make statements to the media critical of the delegation.
During the week of 2 December 2024, delegations from the U.S. National Committee on American Foreign Policy and Australian Strategic Policy Institute visited Taiwan, and met with Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴).
During the week of 9 December 2024, Governor Kevin Sitt (Oklahoma - Republican) visited Taiwan and met with President Lai and also signed an economic cooperation agreement with Minister of Economic Affairs Kuo.
Analysis: Amid the visit of the students from China, the MAC urged Beijing to lift a suspension on mainland students studying in Taiwan. MAC deputy chairman and spokesman Liang Wen-chieh (梁文傑) said the government "has always supported lawful and healthy cross-strait student exchanges, but such short-term exchange visits have limitations in helping participants truly understand Taiwan's culture and society". On the one hand the government criticized the delegation hosted by the Ma’s foundation, but on the other hand publicly called on China to lift the suspension; the mixed message is unlikely to cause China to lift the suspension in the short term.
Ross Darrell Feingold (@RossFeingold) is a lawyer at Titan Attorneys-at-Law and political risk analyst in Taipei.
Disclosures:
1. Mr. Feingold is a senior adviser to the Asia Pacific Youth Association (亞太青年協會, APYA) a Taiwan non-government and non-partisan organisation that encourages youth in Taiwan to be more involved in public policy issues. The honorary chairmen of the APYA are Mark Ho (何志偉, DPP and current Deputy Secretary-General of the Presidential Office), Charles Chen (陳以信, KMT and current Head of the KMT Overseas Department), and Andy Chiu (邱臣遠, TPP and current Acting Mayor of Hsinchu City); Ho, Chen and Chiu are all former members of the Legislative Yuan. The APYA periodically receives grants from the DPP, KMT and TPP to underwrite the cost of APYA events.
2. Mr. Feingold recently received an honorarium to appear on a YouTube program about geopolitical issues hosted by the TPP Foreign Affairs Department.
