News
DGBAS raises 2024 GDP forecast to 3.94%
By ECCT staff writers, DGBAS
Taiwan’s Directorate General of Budget Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) has increased its forecast for Taiwan’s GDP growth for 2024 to 3.94%. The upward revision was based on higher than expected growth in the first quarter of 2024 (1Q24) and an improving outlook for global inflation, exports, private consumption and investments.
Taiwan’s real GDP increased by 1.08% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar) and 6.56% on a year-on-year basis (yoy) in 1Q24, according to a news release from the DGBAS. In addition, the DGBAS revised its 2023 full year GDP growth rate to 1.28% (down from 1.31% previously).
According to the DGBAS, in 1Q24, real private final consumption expanded by 4.45%, mainly driven by expenditures on services such as transportation, travel, restaurants and securities transaction fees, as well as the flourishing outbound tourism. Due to the increase in exports of emerging application goods and inbound travel services, real exports of goods and services grew by 9.11%. Imports also expanded by 0.84%. Regarding gross capital formation, investment in construction, transportation equipment and intellectual property products rose. However, investment in machinery equipment fell significantly. Combining inventory changes, real gross capital formation declined by 4.88%. On the production side, the manufacturing sector increased by 6.58% in 1Q24, higher than the 0.03% decrease in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor and computers, electronic and optical products. In addition, the wholesale and retail trade sector increased by 5.46%, after the expansion of 3.89% in the previous quarter. The transportation and storage sector grew by 11.71% in 1Q24, due to the growing number of passengers taking land and air transport. The financial and insurance sector increased by 17.22% in 1Q24, following 12.12% growth in the previous quarter.
Looking ahead to the rest of the year, according to the DGBAS, with inflation declining, the global economy is expected to grow at a steady pace in 2024. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world trade volume growth is projected to accelerate from 0.3% in 2023 to 3.0% this year. Moreover, the strong demand for new technological applications, such as AI applications and high performance computing (HPC), accompanied by domestic production capacity expansion in semiconductor and ICT industries in recent years, will boost Taiwan’s exports. In aggregate with services exports, real exports of goods and services are expected to grow by 8.44% in 2024. In addition, real private consumption is anticipated to grow by 2.77%, supported by the strong labour market and wage increases, along with the wealth effect stemming from the rising stock market. Growth will also benefit from rising outbound tourism. Real private fixed capital formation is anticipated to increase by 1.52%.
