Insideview
Asia macro-economic outlook
Société Générale is forecasting economic growth in 2024 of 2.5% for the US, 5% for China, 7.4% for India, 3.8% for Taiwan and 2.6% for South Korea. This was revealed by Yao Wei, Head of Research for Société Générale APAC at an ECCT Premium Event lunch. Read the full event report.
In her presentation, the speaker gave her views on prospects for the global economy with a special focus on China and Taiwan. Among other topics, she talked about the outlook for the Chinese economy and its global implications, the great reshuffling of trade, capital and supply chains, and its implications for Taiwan.
While the US labour market is cooling off, she said that it is not recessionary and wages are still rising. In addition, while consumption momentum is softening, it is not collapsing. Moreover, inflation has been falling steadily in recent months, which provides reassurance to the US Federal Reserve that it is time to cut interest rates. SG is expecting the Fed to cut interest rates gradually, starting with a quarter percentage point cut at its next meeting in September. The US corporate sector is still resilient, as evidenced by healthy profit margins.
The speaker went on to talk about how the policies of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and the ongoing reshuffling of supply chains might affect the economy.
